UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Atlanta, USA
14 Jun 2025
Bantamweight
VS
59%
Simon
41%
Smotherman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 34
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Simon
This is a genuine toss-up — Simon at 59% vs Smotherman at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Simon has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Smotherman throws more volume but Simon connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Simon's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Simon
Smotherman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
69"
Reach
69"
33
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Simon
Smotherman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.8
33.8
48.0
Performance Avg
28.3
38
Quality of Victory
25
56
Momentum Score
40
Simon
Smotherman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
34%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
14
1
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance14
1Clinch3
0Ground0
Simon
Smotherman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Simon
Smotherman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/29 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
Simon
Smotherman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
40
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Simon
Smotherman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Simon
Smotherman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
SimonSmotherman
Strike Zones
Simon
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedSmotherman
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Simon targets the head (82% of attacks) — Smotherman absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Smotherman targets the head (82% of attacks) — Simon absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Simon
RND
Smotherman
0/0R00/0
Simon · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Smotherman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Simon · Last 5
Upcoming
Adrian YanezDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Cameron SmothermanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Javid BasharatRating 5.4KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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Smotherman · Last 4
Upcoming
Kai AsakuraUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ricky SimonRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Serhiy SideyRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Jake HadleyRating 5.2Decision
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