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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2022
Featherweight
VS
42%
Kelleher
58%
Nurmagomedov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:15
Brian
Brian Kelleher
"Boom"
24 – 16
5'6"66" reachSwitch40 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Umar
Umar Nurmagomedov
20 – 1
Well-Rounded30 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'8"
CFR 57
★ Official Result
Umar NurmagomedovwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:15
def. Brian Kelleher · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nurmagomedov
→
Actual result
Nurmagomedov wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Kelleher at 42% vs Nurmagomedov at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Kelleher's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
KelleherNurmagomedov
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
66"
Reach
+69"
40
Age
+30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.8
56.7
44.5
Performance Avg
53.6
43
Quality of Victory
36
61
Momentum Score
75
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.4
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
5.8
Style: Pressure
5.0
3.9
Style: Volume
6.6
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
9
0
Body
7
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance13
0Clinch5
0Ground0
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/40 fights
Chin rating based on
10/21 fights
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
75
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
38%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Striking3.4 / 2.9Volume3.9 / 6.6Grappling3.9 / 3.5Wrestling2.7 / 2.5Submission3.8 / 2.5Pressure5.8 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Kelleher
Strike Zones
Nurmagomedov
Kelleher
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD7BODY2LEGS18 absorbed
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
9HEAD7BODY2LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kelleher targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kelleher
RND
Nurmagomedov
0/0R00/0

Kelleher · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Cody Gibson
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody Garbrandt
KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario Bautista
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar Nurmagomedov
Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin Croom
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Song Yadong
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08
W · Dec · R3
Deiveson Figueiredo
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Mario Bautista
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Merab Dvalishvili
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R5
Cory Sandhagen
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08

News & Media

Brian Kelleher · Umar Nurmagomedov
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