UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2022
Featherweight
VS
40%
Kelleher
60%
Nurmagomedov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:15
Brian
Brian Kelleher
"Boom"
24 – 16
5'6"66" reachSwitch39 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Umar
Umar Nurmagomedov
20 – 1
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak30 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'8"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Kelleher has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Kelleher throws more volume but Nurmagomedov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Kelleher's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
66"
Reach
+69"
39
Age
+30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.8
60.4
44.5
Performance Avg
57.2
43
Quality of Victory
36
61
Momentum Score
75
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.4
44%
Strike Accuracy
62%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
9
0
Body
7
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance13
0Clinch5
0Ground0
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/40 fights
Chin rating based on
9/21 fights
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
75
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
38%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kelleher
Nurmagomedov
Striking3.4 / 3.0Volume3.9 / 6.8Grappling3.9 / 3.5Wrestling2.7 / 2.5Submission3.8 / 2.5Pressure5.8 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
Kelleher
Strike Zones
Nurmagomedov
Kelleher
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD7BODY2LEGS18 absorbed
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
9HEAD7BODY2LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kelleher targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kelleher
RND
Nurmagomedov
0/0R00/0

Kelleher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.0W2.3L5.5W4.5W4.0L2.4L5.8W5.2W5.5L5.0W6.2L4.5W4.5W2.8L2.6L2.6L1.7L2017-062018-122021-022023-122024-07
WinLossTrend

Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.2W5.3W5.7W5.8W5.6W6.0W6.8L5.6W5.6W2021-012023-012025-012026-01
WinLossTrend

Kelleher · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R5
Cory SandhagenRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Bekzat AlmakhanRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

News & Media

Brian Kelleher · Umar Nurmagomedov
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