UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher
Hollywood, USA
12 Jun 2007
Welterweight
VS
57%
Fitch
43%
Carneiro
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:07
JF
Jon Fitch
30 – 7
6'0"74" reachOrthodox48 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 21
RC
Roan Carneiro
"Jucao"
21 – 11
Well-Rounded47 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Fitch

This is a genuine toss-up — Fitch at 57% vs Carneiro at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Fitch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Carneiro has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Fitch
Carneiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
74"
Reach
+76"
48
Age
+47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Fitch
Carneiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.0
16.1
52.4
Performance Avg
41.6
32
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
59
Fitch
Carneiro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.7
57%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
0
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
2Clinch0
9Ground0
Fitch
Carneiro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
2.1
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Fitch
Carneiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/37 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Fitch
Carneiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
59
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Fitch
Carneiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Fitch
Carneiro
Striking2.4 / 3.4Volume7.4 / 4.9Grappling3.4 / 3.2Wrestling2.4 / 2.2Submission2.1 / 2.5Pressure4.5 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
2.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Fitch
Strike Zones
Carneiro
Fitch
Attacking
12HEAD1BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Carneiro
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD1BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Fitch targets the head (86% of attacks) — Carneiro absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Fitch
RND
Carneiro
0/0R00/0

Fitch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5L2005-102007-062009-072012-102013-02
WinLossTrend

Carneiro · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W2.8L5.2W2.8L5.5L5.0W1.8L4.5W5.5L2007-042008-062016-022017-02
WinLossTrend

Fitch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Erick SilvaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Johny HendricksRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
Upcoming
BJ Penn
Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08

Carneiro · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · Sub · R1
Mark MunozRating 5
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Ryo ChonanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09

News & Media

Jon Fitch · Roan Carneiro
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