METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
24 Oct 2020
Lightweight
VS
28%
Nurmagomedov
72%
Gaethje
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:34
KN
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
29 – 0
5'10"70" reachOrthodox37 yrs13-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 26
Justin
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
27 – 5
Striker3-fight win streak37 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'11"
CFR 68
★ Official Result
Khabib NurmagomedovwinsSubmissionR2 · 1:34
def. Justin Gaethje · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Nurmagomedov wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis

Gaethje is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Risk flags

Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
NurmagomedovGaethje
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
70"
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.9
67.6
68.2
Performance Avg
65.5
47
Quality of Victory
63
100
Momentum Score
100
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
7.7
/ 10
6.8
Style: Pressure
6.5
5.7
Style: Volume
4.3
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
3Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/29 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
13-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
64%
2
KO / TKO Wins
7
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Striking3.5 / 7.7Volume5.7 / 4.3Grappling4.2 / 0.9Wrestling2.9 / 0.6Submission3.9 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
Nurmagomedov
Strike Zones
Gaethje
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY4LEGS6 absorbed
Gaethje
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY4LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nurmagomedov
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Justin Gaethje
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Sub · R3
Dustin Poirier
Submission
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R4
Conor McGregor
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R5
Al Iaquinta
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Edson Barboza
Decision
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · 2017-12

Gaethje · Last 5

W · KO · R4
Ilia Topuria
KO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy Pimblett
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael Fiziev
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max Holloway
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin Poirier
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

News & Media

Khabib Nurmagomedov · Justin Gaethje
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