★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
24 Oct 2020
Lightweight
VS
28%
Nurmagomedov
72%
Gaethje
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:34
KN
CFR 26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaethje
Gaethje is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Gaethje has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
70"
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.9
66.1
68.2
Performance Avg
63.6
47
Quality of Victory
62
100
Momentum Score
100
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
62%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
3Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/29 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
13-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nurmagomedov
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
NurmagomedovGaethje
Strike Zones
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nurmagomedov
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Nurmagomedov · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.6Submission
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R4
Conor McGregorRating 7.3Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R5
Al IaquintaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5Decision
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · 2017-12
Gaethje · Last 5
Upcoming
Ilia TopuriaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07