UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Chicago, USA
23 Jul 2016
Women's Strawweight
VS
66%
Herrig
34%
Curran
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Herrig
Herrig holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Curran has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Curran has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Herrig throws more volume but Curran connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Curran has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Herrig
Curran
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
65"
Reach
65"
41
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herrig
Curran
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.3
13.7
41.4
Performance Avg
35.4
36
Quality of Victory
50
66
Momentum Score
20
Herrig
Curran
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.4
41%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
5
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Herrig
Curran
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Herrig
Curran
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
48
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/24 fights
Chin rating based on
7/9 fights
Herrig
Curran
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
20
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Herrig
Curran
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Herrig
Curran
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.3
HerrigCurran
Strike Zones
Herrig
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedCurran
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Herrig targets the head (38% of attacks) — Curran absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Curran targets the head (80% of attacks) — Herrig absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Herrig
RND
Curran
0/0R00/0
Herrig · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Curran · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Herrig · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Virna JandirobaRating 2.2Submission
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 5.5Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 5.5Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Cortney CaseyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Curran · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Yan XiaonanRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandra AlbuRating 5.5Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie MoyleRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
L · Sub · R1
Felice HerrigRating 1.5Submission
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07
W · Sub · R2
Emily KaganRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12