UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Orlando, USA
3 Dec 2022
Flyweight
VS
50%
Nicolau
50%
Schnell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:44
Matheus
Matheus Nicolau
19 – 6
5'6"66" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 38
Matt
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17 – 10
Well-Rounded36 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'8"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nicolau

This is a genuine toss-up — Nicolau at 50% vs Schnell at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Schnell throws more volume but Nicolau connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nicolau's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Schnell has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nicolau
Schnell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
66"
Reach
+70"
33+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nicolau
Schnell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.0
38.1
44.7
Performance Avg
40.7
32
Quality of Victory
37
49
Momentum Score
45
Nicolau
Schnell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.6
52%
Strike Accuracy
41%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
4
3
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance6
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Nicolau
Schnell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.8
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nicolau
Schnell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
17/27 fights
Nicolau
Schnell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Nicolau
Schnell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
43%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nicolau
Schnell
Striking2.7 / 0.9Volume7.0 / 5.5Grappling2.9 / 4.8Wrestling2.0 / 3.4Submission1.4 / 4.3Pressure3.9 / 4.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.8
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Nicolau
Strike Zones
Schnell
Nicolau
Attacking
10HEAD3BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Schnell
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD3BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nicolau targets the head (77% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Schnell targets the head (67% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nicolau
RND
Schnell
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nicolau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L6.2W4.6W4.5W5.4W2.3L3.4L6.6L2015-112018-072022-032024-042024-10
WinLossTrend

Schnell · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0102.7L1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W2.8L4.7W2.3L5.9W2.9L3.3L2.9L5.0W3.5L2016-122019-032022-052024-092025-11
WinLossTrend

Nicolau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex PerezRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03

Schnell · Last 5

Upcoming
Imanol Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesRating 3.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

News & Media

Matheus Nicolau · Matt Schnell
← Back to fights