UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Rotterdam, Netherlands
8 May 2016
Flyweight
VS
50%
Sasaki
50%
Gates
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:30
YS
Yuta Sasaki
"Ulka"
21 – 6
5'10"71" reachSouthpaw36 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 18
WG
Willie Gates
12 – 7
Knockout Artist2-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'8"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sasaki

This is a genuine toss-up — Sasaki at 50% vs Gates at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Sasaki throws more volume but Gates connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sasaki's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gates has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sasaki
Gates
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"
Reach
+72"
36+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Sasaki
Gates
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.8
18.0
48.2
Performance Avg
46.0
51
Quality of Victory
60
46
Momentum Score
43
Sasaki
Gates
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
55%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance4
0Clinch1
4Ground1
Sasaki
Gates
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sasaki
Gates
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/19 fights
Sasaki
Gates
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
43
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
Sasaki
Gates
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sasaki
Gates
Striking0.9 / 10.0Volume0.9 / 0.5Grappling8.0 / 0.0Wrestling5.6 / 0.0Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure8.3 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Sasaki
Strike Zones
Gates
Sasaki
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Gates
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sasaki targets the head (80% of attacks) — Gates absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Gates targets the head (50% of attacks) — Sasaki absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sasaki
RND
Gates
0/0R00/0

Sasaki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.0W2.8L3.5L5.2W5.5L5.2W1.5L5.2W2.8L2014-082016-052017-092018-11
WinLossTrend

Gates · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.0L5.0W4.0L2.8L2014-122015-072015-082016-05
WinLossTrend

Sasaki · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · Sub · R2
Jenel LausaRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · 2018-06
L · Sub · R1
Jussier FormigaRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
W · Sub · R2
Justin ScogginsRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02

Gates · Last 4

L · Sub · R2
Yuta SasakiRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
L · KO · R3
Dustin OrtizRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · 2015-08
W · KO · R1
Darrell MontagueRating 5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
L · Sub · R3
John MoragaRating 4
Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12

News & Media

Yuta Sasaki · Willie Gates
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