UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Los Angeles, USA
24 Oct 2009
Middleweight
VS
47%
Rivera
53%
Kimmons
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:53
JR
Jorge Rivera
"El Conquistador"
20 – 9
6'1"73" reachOrthodox54 yrsStriker
CFR 14
RK
Rob Kimmons
"The Rosedale Reaper"
25 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'10"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kimmons

This is a genuine toss-up — Rivera at 47% vs Kimmons at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Rivera has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Rivera's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kimmons has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Rivera
Kimmons
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
73"
Reach
73"
54
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rivera
Kimmons
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.4
16.2
48.0
Performance Avg
43.7
44
Quality of Victory
44
30
Momentum Score
53
Rivera
Kimmons
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.7
54%
Strike Accuracy
51%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
2Clinch0
16Ground0
Rivera
Kimmons
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.9
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
6.7
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rivera
Kimmons
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/29 fights
Chin rating based on
7/34 fights
Rivera
Kimmons
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
53
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
Rivera
Kimmons
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
67%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rivera
Kimmons
Striking7.3 / 0.9Volume4.1 / 3.5Grappling0.9 / 6.1Wrestling0.6 / 4.3Submission0.0 / 6.7Pressure6.0 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Rivera
Strike Zones
Kimmons
Rivera
Attacking
21HEAD0BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Kimmons
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD0BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rivera targets the head (100% of attacks) — Kimmons absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Kimmons targets the head (50% of attacks) — Rivera absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rivera
RND
Kimmons
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Rivera · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0104.5W1.5L4.0L4.5W1.5L5.0W1.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.5W5.2W2.8L5.5L5.2W2003-092006-012008-062011-022012-01
WinLossTrend

Kimmons · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0105.0W1.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W2.8L2.8L2008-062009-042010-082011-03
WinLossTrend

Rivera · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Eric SchaferRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01
L · Dec · R3
Constantinos PhilippouRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
L · KO · R2
Michael BispingRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · KO · R2
Nate QuarryRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi · 2010-03
W · KO · R3
Rob KimmonsRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10

Kimmons · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Dongi YangRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · 2011-03
L · Sub · R2
Kyle NokeRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami · 2010-11
W · Dec · R3
Steve SteinbeissRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
L · KO · R3
Jorge RiveraRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10
W · Sub · R1
Joe VedepoRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann · 2009-04

News & Media

Jorge Rivera · Rob Kimmons
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