UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
13 Oct 2012
Welterweight
VS
66%
Moraes
34%
Forte
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:10
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Moraes
Moraes holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Forte has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Moraes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Moraes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Moraes's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Forte has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Moraes
Forte
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
71"
43
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moraes
Forte
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.0
9.8
47.0
Performance Avg
25.0
37
Quality of Victory
25
95
Momentum Score
33
Moraes
Forte
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
44%
Strike Accuracy
32%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
6
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Moraes
Forte
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moraes
Forte
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Moraes
Forte
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Moraes
Forte
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moraes
Forte
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
MoraesForte
Strike Zones
Moraes
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedForte
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moraes targets the head (80% of attacks) — Forte absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Forte targets the head (86% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moraes
RND
Forte
0/0R00/0
Moraes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Forte · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Moraes · Last 5
L · KO · R3
James KrauseRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R3
Warlley AlvesRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
W · Dec · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
Forte · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrevinoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03
L · KO · R1
John MakdessiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Terry EtimRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
L · Sub · R3
Sergio MoraesRating 4Submission
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10