METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Dec 2023
Lightweight
VS
54%
Garcia
46%
Costa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:01
★ Official Result
Steve GarciawinsKO/TKOR2 · 1:01
def. Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Garcia
→
Actual result
Garcia wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Garcia at 54% vs Costa at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Garcia has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Garcia's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GarciaCosta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Garcia
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
71"
34
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Garcia
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.1
59.4
62.1
Performance Avg
53.2
55
Quality of Victory
42
95
Momentum Score
84
Garcia
Costa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
8.3
Style: Pressure
6.1
2.5
Style: Volume
4.8
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
1
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
2Clinch0
22Ground0
Garcia
Costa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.3
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Garcia
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/24 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Garcia
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
84
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Garcia
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
57%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garcia
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
GarciaCosta
Strike Zones
Garcia
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedCosta
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (92% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garcia
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Garcia · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Diego LopesKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
David OnamaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
SeungWoo ChoiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
Costa · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Dan IgeKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Morgan CharriereKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03