UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Dec 2023
Lightweight
VS
55%
Garcia
45%
Costa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:01
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Garcia
This is a genuine toss-up — Garcia at 55% vs Costa at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Garcia has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Garcia has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Costa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Garcia
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
71"
34
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Garcia
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
72.5
59.4
65.0
Performance Avg
53.2
55
Quality of Victory
42
95
Momentum Score
84
Garcia
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
1.4
53%
Strike Accuracy
47%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
7 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
1
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
2Clinch0
22Ground0
Garcia
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Garcia
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/24 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Garcia
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
84
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Garcia
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
57%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garcia
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
GarciaCosta
Strike Zones
Garcia
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedCosta
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (92% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garcia
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Garcia · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Garcia · Last 5
Upcoming
Diego LopesUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
David OnamaRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
SeungWoo ChoiRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
Costa · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Morgan CharriereRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03