METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
Montreal, Canada
16 Mar 2013
Welterweight
VS
48%
Ellenberger
52%
Marquardt
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:00
★ Official Result
Jake EllenbergerwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:00
def. Nate Marquardt · UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Marquardt
→
Actual result
Ellenberger wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ellenberger at 48% vs Marquardt at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Ellenberger throws more volume but Marquardt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Ellenberger's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Marquardt has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EllenbergerMarquardt
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+74"
41+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
16.8
45.7
Performance Avg
48.6
45
Quality of Victory
46
56
Momentum Score
59
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.1
42%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
2
2
Body
1
3
Leg
10
RangeRange
11Distance13
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
25/54 fights
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
59
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
69%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.3
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
EllenbergerMarquardt
Strike Zones
Ellenberger
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedMarquardt
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (62% of attacks) — Marquardt absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Marquardt targets the legs (77% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ellenberger
RND
Marquardt
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ellenberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Marquardt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Ellenberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
Marquardt · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Cezar FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Vitor BelfortRating 5.5Decision
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
W · KO · R2
Tamdan McCroryRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05