UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
Montreal, Canada
16 Mar 2013
Welterweight
VS
48%
Ellenberger
52%
Marquardt
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:00
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31 – 15
5'9"71" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
NM
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
35 – 19
Well-Rounded3-fight slide47 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'0"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Marquardt

This is a genuine toss-up — Ellenberger at 48% vs Marquardt at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Ellenberger throws more volume but Marquardt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Ellenberger's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Marquardt has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ellenberger
Marquardt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+74"
41+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
16.8
45.7
Performance Avg
48.6
45
Quality of Victory
46
56
Momentum Score
59
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
42%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
2
2
Body
1
3
Leg
10
RangeRange
11Distance13
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
25/54 fights
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
59
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Ellenberger
Marquardt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
69%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ellenberger
Marquardt
Striking6.0 / 5.7Volume3.4 / 3.5Grappling1.5 / 2.6Wrestling1.1 / 1.8Submission1.0 / 2.3Pressure5.6 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.3
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Ellenberger
Strike Zones
Marquardt
Ellenberger
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY3LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY10LEGS13 absorbed
Marquardt
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY10LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY3LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (62% of attacks) — Marquardt absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Marquardt targets the legs (77% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 77% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ellenberger
RND
Marquardt
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.3L1.8L5.2W2.1L5.5L5.4W1.5L2.8L1.5L1.9L2009-092012-022014-112017-042018-08
WinLossTrend

Marquardt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.5L5.0W5.5W5.0W5.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W1.5L1.5L5.0W5.5L3.1L5.2W1.5L5.2W5.5L5.5L5.5L2005-082008-092013-032016-102017-11
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

Marquardt · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cezar FerreiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Vitor BelfortRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
W · KO · R2
Tamdan McCroryRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

News & Media

Jake Ellenberger · Nate Marquardt
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