UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
Toronto, Canada
30 Apr 2011
Middleweight
VS
50%
MacDonald
50%
Jensen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:37
JM
Jason MacDonald
"The Athlete"
25 – 16
6'3"80" reachOrthodox50 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 17
RJ
Ryan Jensen
21 – 8
Submission Hunter2-fight slide48 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'1"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: MacDonald

This is a genuine toss-up — MacDonald at 50% vs Jensen at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Jensen throws more volume but MacDonald connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

MacDonald's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Jensen has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.

MacDonald
Jensen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
80"+
Reach
76"
50
Age
+48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
MacDonald
Jensen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.3
17.1
48.8
Performance Avg
42.4
53
Quality of Victory
54
52
Momentum Score
59
MacDonald
Jensen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
MacDonald
Jensen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
MacDonald
Jensen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/41 fights
Chin rating based on
8/29 fights
MacDonald
Jensen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
MacDonald
Jensen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

MacDonald
Jensen
Striking4.2 / 0.5Volume0.9 / 0.5Grappling5.3 / 8.0Wrestling3.7 / 5.6Submission6.7 / 10.0Pressure8.3 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

MacDonald
RND
Jensen
0/0R00/0

MacDonald · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0105.2W5.2W2.8L5.2W5.5L5.2W4.0L5.2W1.5L1.5L1.5L5.0W1.5L1.5L2006-102007-102008-122011-092012-05
WinLossTrend

Jensen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.9
0101.5L1.5L2.8L5.0W1.5L5.0W4.2L1.5L2007-082008-092010-012010-102011-04
WinLossTrend

MacDonald · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tom LawlorRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · KO · R1
Alan BelcherRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R1
Ryan JensenRating 5
Submission
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
L · KO · R1
John SalterRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Nate QuarryRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 97: Redemption · 2009-04

Jensen · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
L · Sub · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.2
Submission
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10
W · Sub · R1
Jesse ForbesRating 5
Submission
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Mark MunozRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva · 2010-01
W · Sub · R1
Steve SteinbeissRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard · 2009-09

News & Media

Jason MacDonald · Ryan Jensen
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