UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
24 Oct 2020
Welterweight
VS
28%
Oliveira
72%
Rakhmonov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:40
AO
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22 – 12
5'11"76" reachOrthodox38 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 30
Shavkat
Shavkat Rakhmonov
"Nomad"
19 – 0
Submission Hunter7-fight win streak31 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'1"
CFR 76

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rakhmonov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
76"
Reach
+77"
38
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
76.4
46.5
Performance Avg
68.5
43
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
100
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
54%
Strike Accuracy
64%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
3
Body
4
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance10
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
86%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
5
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Striking4.7 / 3.4Volume4.0 / 3.1Grappling3.0 / 6.1Wrestling2.1 / 4.2Submission2.7 / 7.1Pressure6.0 / 9.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.2
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.1
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
Oliveira
Strike Zones
Rakhmonov
Oliveira
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY3LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD4BODY3LEGS13 absorbed
Rakhmonov
Attacking
6HEAD4BODY3LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY3LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (33% of attacks) — Rakhmonov absorbs 33% of strikes there
🎯Rakhmonov targets the head (46% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 46% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oliveira
RND
Rakhmonov
0/0R00/0

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.2L5.0W4.5W5.5W1.5L4.5W5.5W5.3W5.2W4.0L5.2W5.0W3.8L5.5L5.8L5.1W4.5W3.6L2.4L6.2L3.4L2015-032016-102018-122021-042022-03
WinLossTrend

Rakhmonov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.0W5.2W5.8W5.9W6.5W5.8W6.0W2020-102022-022023-032024-12
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4
Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

Rakhmonov · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Ian Machado GarryRating 6
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Sub · R3
Geoff NealRating 6.5
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Sub · R2
Neil MagnyRating 5.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
W · KO · R1
Carlston HarrisRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02

News & Media

Alex Oliveira · Shavkat Rakhmonov
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