METRICS GUIDE

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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
24 Oct 2020
Welterweight
VS
30%
Oliveira
70%
Rakhmonov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:40
AO
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22 – 12
5'11"76" reachOrthodox38 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 30
Shavkat
Shavkat Rakhmonov
"Nomad"
19 – 0
Submission Hunter7-fight win streak31 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'1"
CFR 69
★ Official Result
Shavkat RakhmonovwinsSubmissionR1 · 4:40
def. Alex Oliveira · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rakhmonov
→
Actual result
Rakhmonov wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

Rakhmonov is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
OliveiraRakhmonov
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
76"
Reach
+77"
38
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
68.8
46.5
Performance Avg
68.5
43
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
100
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.7
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
6.0
Style: Pressure
9.0
4.0
Style: Volume
3.1
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
3
Body
4
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance10
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.2
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
7.1
3
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
86%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
5
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oliveira
Rakhmonov
Striking4.7 / 3.4Volume4.0 / 3.1Grappling3.0 / 6.1Wrestling2.1 / 4.2Submission2.7 / 7.1Pressure6.0 / 9.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.2
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.1
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
Oliveira
Strike Zones
Rakhmonov
Oliveira
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY3LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD4BODY3LEGS13 absorbed
Rakhmonov
Attacking
6HEAD4BODY3LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY3LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (33% of attacks) — Rakhmonov absorbs 33% of strikes there
🎯Rakhmonov targets the head (46% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 46% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oliveira
RND
Rakhmonov
0/0R00/0

Oliveira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Kevin Holland
KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko Price
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy Brown
Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter Sobotta
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

Rakhmonov · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Ian Machado Garry
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R2
Stephen Thompson
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Sub · R3
Geoff Neal
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Sub · R2
Neil Magny
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
W · KO · R1
Carlston Harris
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02

News & Media

Alex Oliveira · Shavkat Rakhmonov
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