UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
Los Angeles, USA
4 Jun 2016
Featherweight
VS
31%
Miller
69%
Caceres
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Caceres
Caceres holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Miller has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Miller has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Caceres has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Miller's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Caceres has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Miller
Caceres
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
73"
Reach
73"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Miller
Caceres
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.6
39.7
49.0
Performance Avg
42.2
47
Quality of Victory
34
49
Momentum Score
76
Miller
Caceres
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
31%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
21
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance18
0Clinch1
2Ground5
Miller
Caceres
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Caceres
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
4
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/32 fights
Chin rating based on
30/36 fights
Miller
Caceres
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
76
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Miller
Caceres
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
31%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
7
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miller
Caceres
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.7
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
7.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
MillerCaceres
Strike Zones
Miller
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedCaceres
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (92% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Caceres targets the head (88% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miller
RND
Caceres
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Miller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Caceres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Miller · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mizuto HirotaRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
Upcoming
Jim AlersUFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
W · Sub · R2
Sam SiciliaRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
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