UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen
Las Vegas, USA
29 Oct 2022
Heavyweight
VS
89%
Acosta
11%
Vanderaa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Acosta
Acosta is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 57 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Acosta has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Acosta has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Vanderaa has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Acosta
Vanderaa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
78"
Reach
+80"
34
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Acosta
Vanderaa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.8
8.4
55.7
Performance Avg
20.7
42
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
0
Acosta
Vanderaa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
2.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
45%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
7
5
Body
1
1
Leg
14
RangeRange
26Distance22
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Acosta
Vanderaa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Acosta
Vanderaa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
18
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Acosta
Vanderaa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Acosta
Vanderaa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Acosta
Vanderaa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
AcostaVanderaa
Strike Zones
Acosta
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedVanderaa
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Acosta targets the head (77% of attacks) — Vanderaa absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Vanderaa targets the legs (64% of attacks) — Acosta absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Acosta
RND
Vanderaa
0/0R00/0
Acosta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Vanderaa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Acosta · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
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Vanderaa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
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L · KO · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4KO/TKO
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Aleksei OleinikRating 1.5Submission
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