UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
Indianapolis, USA
25 Sept 2010
Welterweight
VS
50%
Serra
50%
Lytle
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MS
Matt Serra
"The Terra"
11 – 7
5'6"68" reachOrthodox51 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
CL
Chris Lytle
"Lights Out"
31 – 18
Well-Rounded51 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'11"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Serra

This is a genuine toss-up — Serra at 50% vs Lytle at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Serra has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Lytle has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Serra's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Serra
Lytle
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'11"
68"
Reach
68"
51
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Serra
Lytle
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.2
18.3
53.3
Performance Avg
46.2
56
Quality of Victory
44
52
Momentum Score
56
Serra
Lytle
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.3
37%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
45
16
Body
2
9
Leg
0
RangeRange
38Distance47
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Serra
Lytle
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.5
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Serra
Lytle
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
80
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/18 fights
Chin rating based on
20/49 fights
Serra
Lytle
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
56
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Serra
Lytle
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
70%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
6
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Serra
Lytle
Striking3.9 / 2.0Volume5.6 / 3.4Grappling2.5 / 5.5Wrestling1.8 / 3.9Submission1.4 / 6.0Pressure4.5 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.5
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Serra
Strike Zones
Lytle
Serra
Attacking
13HEAD16BODY9LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
45HEAD2BODY0LEGS47 absorbed
Lytle
Attacking
45HEAD2BODY0LEGS47 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD16BODY9LEGS38 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Serra targets the body (42% of attacks) — Lytle absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Lytle targets the head (96% of attacks) — Serra absorbs 96% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Serra
RND
Lytle
0/0R00/0

Serra · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.0L4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W2.1L5.5L5.0W5.5L2001-052003-022006-112010-022010-09
WinLossTrend

Lytle · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.8L5.8L5.2W5.2W5.5L4.8L5.5L5.5L5.0W4.8L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.6W4.5W5.5L5.5W2000-112005-102008-022010-022011-08
WinLossTrend

Serra · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · KO · R1
Frank TriggRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt HughesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
L · KO · R2
Georges St-PierreRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Georges St-PierreRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04

Lytle · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · Sub · R1
Brian FosterRating 5
Submission
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02

News & Media

Matt Serra · Chris Lytle
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