★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
Las Vegas, USA
2 Mar 2019
Light Heavyweight
VS
55%
Jones
45%
Smith
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jones
This is a genuine toss-up — Jones at 55% vs Smith at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jones has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Smith throws more volume but Jones connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Smith has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jones
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
84"+
Reach
76"
38
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jones
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
58.3
74.6
Performance Avg
50.7
61
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
100
Jones
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.3
58%
Strike Accuracy
52%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
6
3
Body
0
8
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance6
10Clinch1
0Ground0
Jones
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jones
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/29 fights
Chin rating based on
25/60 fights
Jones
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
19-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Jones
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
77%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
6
Submission Wins
5
10
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jones
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
JonesSmith
Strike Zones
Jones
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedSmith
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jones targets the head (45% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (86% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jones
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
Jones · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Jones · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Sub · R1
Ciryl GaneRating 6.8Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Dec · R5
Dominick ReyesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
W · Dec · R5
Thiago SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R5
Anthony SmithRating 5.7Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12