UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Flyweight
VS
72%
Rodriguez
28%
Borjas
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RR
Ronaldo Rodriguez
"Lazy Boy"
17 – 3
5'6"65" reachOrthodox27 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 59
Kevin
Kevin Borjas
"El Gallo Negro"
10 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide28 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'5"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rodriguez

Rodriguez is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rodriguez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Borjas has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Rodriguez
Borjas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
65"
Reach
+68"
27+
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rodriguez
Borjas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.7
22.3
49.0
Performance Avg
23.0
37
Quality of Victory
25
83
Momentum Score
15
Rodriguez
Borjas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
39
6
Body
2
11
Leg
2
RangeRange
37Distance42
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Rodriguez
Borjas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.8
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodriguez
Borjas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/20 fights
Chin rating based on
6/15 fights
Rodriguez
Borjas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
15
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Rodriguez
Borjas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rodriguez
Borjas
Striking1.3 / 0.4Volume5.3 / 8.4Grappling5.2 / 2.4Wrestling3.6 / 1.7Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 0.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.6
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
Rodriguez
Strike Zones
Borjas
Rodriguez
Attacking
20HEAD6BODY11LEGS37 landed
Absorbing
39HEAD2BODY2LEGS43 absorbed
Borjas
Attacking
39HEAD2BODY2LEGS43 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD6BODY11LEGS37 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (54% of attacks) — Borjas absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Borjas targets the head (91% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rodriguez
RND
Borjas
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.3W5.5L2024-022024-092025-03
WinLossTrend

Borjas · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0107.1L4.1L5.7W6.1L5.0L2023-112024-052025-032025-082026-02
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Kevin BorjasRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Ode OsbourneRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R2
Denys BondarRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

Borjas · Last 5

Upcoming
Andre Lima
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Imanol RodriguezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Ronaldo RodriguezRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Alessandro CostaRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

Ronaldo Rodriguez · Kevin Borjas
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