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The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Las Vegas, USA
15 Dec 2012
Heavyweight
VS
46%
Nelson
54%
Mitrione
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:58
RN
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22 – 14
6'0"73" reachOrthodox50 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 19
MM
Matt Mitrione
12 – 5
Knockout Artist2-fight slide48 yrsSwitch82" reach6'3"
CFR 22
★ Official Result
Roy NelsonwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:58
def. Matt Mitrione · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mitrione
→
Actual result
Nelson wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 46% vs Mitrione at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Mitrione has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
NelsonMitrione
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nelson
Mitrione
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+82"
50
Age
+48
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Nelson
Mitrione
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
21.9
55.6
Performance Avg
58.4
61
Quality of Victory
54
26
Momentum Score
82
Nelson
Mitrione
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.8
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
7.6
Style: Pressure
8.2
1.8
Style: Volume
2.2
8 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
8 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
9
0
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
19Distance10
0Clinch3
4Ground0
Nelson
Mitrione
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Nelson
Mitrione
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
30
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
14/17 fights
Nelson
Mitrione
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
82
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Nelson
Mitrione
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
89%
8
KO / TKO Wins
8
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nelson
Mitrione
Striking9.8 / 10.0Volume1.8 / 2.2Grappling0.3 / 0.3Wrestling0.2 / 0.2Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 8.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
Nelson
Strike Zones
Mitrione
Nelson
Attacking
22HEAD0BODY1LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Mitrione
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD0BODY1LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (96% of attacks) — Mitrione absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯Mitrione targets the head (69% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 69% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nelson
RND
Mitrione
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander Volkov
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio Silva
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick Lewis
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared Rosholt
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh Barnett
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

Mitrione · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Travis Browne
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01
L · Sub · R1
Ben Rothwell
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · KO · R1
Gabriel Gonzaga
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
W · KO · R1
Derrick Lewis
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · 2014-09
W · KO · R1
Shawn Jordan
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · 2014-03

News & Media

Roy Nelson · Matt Mitrione
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