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The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Las Vegas, USA
15 Dec 2012
Heavyweight
VS
46%
Nelson
54%
Mitrione
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:58
RN
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22 – 14
6'0"73" reachOrthodox50 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 19
MM
Matt Mitrione
12 – 5
Knockout Artist2-fight slide48 yrsSwitch82" reach6'3"
CFR 22
★ Official Result
Roy NelsonwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:58
def. Matt Mitrione · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mitrione
→
Actual result
Nelson wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 46% vs Mitrione at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Mitrione has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Mitrione has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
NelsonMitrione
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nelson
Mitrione
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+82"
50
Age
+48
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Nelson
Mitrione
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
21.9
55.6
Performance Avg
58.4
61
Quality of Victory
54
26
Momentum Score
82
Nelson
Mitrione
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
2.1
40%
Strike Accuracy
55%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
8 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
9
0
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
19Distance10
0Clinch3
4Ground0
Nelson
Mitrione
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Nelson
Mitrione
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
30
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
14/17 fights
Nelson
Mitrione
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
82
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Nelson
Mitrione
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
89%
8
KO / TKO Wins
8
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nelson
Mitrione
Striking9.8 / 10.0Volume1.8 / 2.2Grappling0.3 / 0.3Wrestling0.2 / 0.2Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 8.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
Nelson
Strike Zones
Mitrione
Nelson
Attacking
22HEAD0BODY1LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Mitrione
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD0BODY1LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (96% of attacks) — Mitrione absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯Mitrione targets the head (69% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 69% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nelson
RND
Mitrione
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.1L5.5L5.5L4.5W6.7L5.2W6.8L2009-122012-022013-102016-022017-04
WinLossTrend

Mitrione · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.2W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L1.5L5.0W1.5L5.0W6.2W5.0W1.5L4.0L2009-122011-062013-092015-062016-01
WinLossTrend

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

Mitrione · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Travis BrowneRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01
L · Sub · R1
Ben RothwellRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · KO · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
W · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · 2014-09
W · KO · R1
Shawn JordanRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · 2014-03

News & Media

Roy Nelson · Matt Mitrione
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