UFC 46: Supernatural
Las Vegas, USA
31 Jan 2004
Lightweight
VS
87%
Serra
13%
Curran
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Serra
Serra is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Serra has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 56 points.
Striking split: Curran throws more volume but Serra connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Serra's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Serra
Curran
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
68"
Reach
+69"
51
Age
+48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Serra
Curran
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.2
2.6
53.3
Performance Avg
0.0
56
Quality of Victory
0
52
Momentum Score
0
Serra
Curran
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
32%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
5
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance3
7Clinch1
3Ground0
Serra
Curran
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Serra
Curran
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/18 fights
Chin rating based on
3/54 fights
Serra
Curran
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Serra
Curran
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Serra
Curran
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SerraCurran
Strike Zones
Serra
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedCurran
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Serra targets the body (50% of attacks) — Curran absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Curran targets the head (75% of attacks) — Serra absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Serra
RND
Curran
0/0R00/0
Serra · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Curran · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Serra · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleRating 5.5Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · KO · R1
Frank TriggRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt HughesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
L · KO · R2
Georges St-PierreRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Georges St-PierreRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04
Curran · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Johnny EduardoRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · Dec · R3
Scott JorgensenRating 5.5Decision
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10
L · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 46: Supernatural · 2004-01