METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Uniondale, USA
22 Jul 2017
Middleweight
VS
55%
Weidman
45%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:45
★ Official Result
Chris WeidmanwinsSubmissionR3 · 3:45
def. Kelvin Gastelum · UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Weidman
→
Actual result
Weidman wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Weidman at 55% vs Gastelum at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Weidman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Gastelum throws more volume but Weidman connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Weidman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WeidmanGastelum
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Weidman
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'9"
78"+
Reach
71"
42
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Weidman
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.1
41.4
57.0
Performance Avg
47.4
55
Quality of Victory
42
51
Momentum Score
28
Weidman
Gastelum
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.3
48%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
9
3
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance10
3Clinch1
1Ground0
Weidman
Gastelum
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Weidman
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
38
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
7
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/24 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Weidman
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
28
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Weidman
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
36%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Weidman
Gastelum
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
WeidmanGastelum
Strike Zones
Weidman
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedGastelum
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Weidman targets the head (76% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (82% of attacks) — Weidman absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Weidman
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Weidman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Weidman · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Eryk AndersRating 3.5KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 5.8Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12