UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Uniondale, USA
22 Jul 2017
Middleweight
VS
55%
Weidman
45%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:45
Chris
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
16 – 8
6'2"78" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Kelvin
Kelvin Gastelum
21 – 11
Well-Rounded34 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'9"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Weidman

This is a genuine toss-up — Weidman at 55% vs Gastelum at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Weidman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Striking split: Gastelum throws more volume but Weidman connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Weidman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Weidman
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'9"
78"+
Reach
71"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Weidman
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.1
41.4
57.0
Performance Avg
47.4
55
Quality of Victory
42
51
Momentum Score
28
Weidman
Gastelum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
48%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
9
3
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance10
3Clinch1
1Ground0
Weidman
Gastelum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Weidman
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
38
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
7
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/24 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Weidman
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
28
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Weidman
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
36%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Weidman
Gastelum
Striking4.5 / 3.3Volume4.5 / 6.3Grappling3.0 / 2.7Wrestling2.1 / 1.9Submission2.5 / 1.4Pressure5.9 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Weidman
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Weidman
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Gastelum
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Weidman targets the head (76% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (82% of attacks) — Weidman absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Weidman
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Weidman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0104.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.1W5.1W5.1W4.5W5.0W3.4L4.0L2.8L5.6W4.0L2.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.8W3.5L2011-032013-072016-112020-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Gastelum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.2W6.1L4.5W5.5W3.6L5.0W4.5W6.9L5.5L2.4L4.5W6.4L6.5L5.2W5.1L5.4W7.5L4.5W3.0L2013-042015-112019-112024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Weidman · Last 5

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KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
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Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
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L · KO · R1
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KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 4.5
Decision
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Gastelum · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3
Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5
Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4
Decision
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L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1
Submission
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News & Media

Chris Weidman · Kelvin Gastelum
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