UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
3 Jun 2017
Women's Strawweight
VS
30%
Gadelha
70%
Kowalkiewicz
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:03
CG
Claudia Gadelha
"Claudinha"
18 – 5
5'4"63" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
Karolina
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'3"
CFR 33

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kowalkiewicz

Kowalkiewicz is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Kowalkiewicz throws more volume but Gadelha connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Kowalkiewicz has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gadelha
Kowalkiewicz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'3"
63"
Reach
+64"
37+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gadelha
Kowalkiewicz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.8
32.7
40.8
Performance Avg
35.6
29
Quality of Victory
28
30
Momentum Score
40
Gadelha
Kowalkiewicz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
42%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
6
2
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance9
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Gadelha
Kowalkiewicz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gadelha
Kowalkiewicz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
20
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Gadelha
Kowalkiewicz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
40
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Gadelha
Kowalkiewicz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
11%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gadelha
Kowalkiewicz
Striking1.2 / 0.9Volume8.0 / 8.1Grappling3.2 / 3.0Wrestling2.2 / 2.1Submission1.4 / 1.1Pressure2.8 / 2.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
2.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.2
8.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
Gadelha
Strike Zones
Kowalkiewicz
Gadelha
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY3LEGS9 absorbed
Kowalkiewicz
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY3LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gadelha targets the head (75% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (67% of attacks) — Gadelha absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gadelha
RND
Kowalkiewicz
0/0R00/0

Gadelha · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W6.3L4.8W5.5L4.5W4.6W6.5L2014-072016-072017-092019-072020-11
WinLossTrend

Kowalkiewicz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.9W5.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W2.3L5.5L6.7L6.5L1.6L5.2W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.4L6.8L4.6L2015-122017-102020-022023-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Gadelha · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Yan XiaonanRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Angela HillRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
W · Dec · R3
Randa MarkosRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Nina NunesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Carla EsparzaRating 4.8
Decision
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06

Kowalkiewicz · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Diana BelbitaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

News & Media

Claudia Gadelha · Karolina Kowalkiewicz
← Back to fights