UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic
Las Vegas, USA
14 May 2022
Light Heavyweight
VS
55%
Blachowicz
45%
Rakic
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:11
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Blachowicz
This is a genuine toss-up — Blachowicz at 55% vs Rakic at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Blachowicz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Rakic throws more volume but Blachowicz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Blachowicz's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rakic has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Blachowicz
Rakic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
78"
Reach
78"
43
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Blachowicz
Rakic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
37.5
53.0
Performance Avg
43.8
48
Quality of Victory
37
20
Momentum Score
25
Blachowicz
Rakic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
51%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
2
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Blachowicz
Rakic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.3
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Blachowicz
Rakic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
30
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/40 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
Blachowicz
Rakic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
25
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Blachowicz
Rakic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
33%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Blachowicz
Rakic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
BlachowiczRakic
Strike Zones
Blachowicz
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedRakic
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Blachowicz targets the body (40% of attacks) — Rakic absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Rakic targets the head (60% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Blachowicz
RND
Rakic
0/0R00/0
Blachowicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Rakic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Blachowicz · Last 5
Upcoming
Bogdan GuskovDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.6Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
Magomed AnkalaevDecision
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
W · KO · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
Rakic · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Azamat MurzakanovRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaRating 4.4KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Thiago SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03