UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
Seattle, USA
8 Dec 2012
Lightweight
VS
58%
Cruickshank
42%
Martinez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:57
DC
CFR 16
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cruickshank
This is a genuine toss-up — Cruickshank at 58% vs Martinez at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Cruickshank has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Cruickshank has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cruickshank's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cruickshank
Martinez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
69"
40+
Age
42
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Cruickshank
Martinez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.9
11.3
44.5
Performance Avg
28.3
41
Quality of Victory
25
48
Momentum Score
40
Cruickshank
Martinez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.6
37%
Strike Accuracy
19%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
7
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance10
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Cruickshank
Martinez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cruickshank
Martinez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/28 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Cruickshank
Martinez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
48
40
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Cruickshank
Martinez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cruickshank
Martinez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
CruickshankMartinez
Strike Zones
Cruickshank
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedMartinez
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cruickshank targets the body (70% of attacks) — Martinez absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Martinez targets the head (60% of attacks) — Cruickshank absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cruickshank
RND
Martinez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cruickshank · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Martinez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Cruickshank · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Paul FelderRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01
L · Sub · R1
James KrauseRating 1.5Submission
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · Sub · R2
Beneil DariushRating 3.7Submission
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
Upcoming
KJ NoonsThe Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale · 2014-12
W · Dec · R3
Anthony NjokuaniRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
Martinez · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Daron CruickshankRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · 2012-12
W · Dec · R3
Bernardo MagalhaesRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
L · Dec · R3
Matthew RiddleRating 5.5Decision
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · 2012-02