METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Los Angeles, USA
24 Oct 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
55%
Bader
45%
Schafer
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ryan BaderwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Eric Schafer · UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bader
→
Actual result
Bader wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Bader at 55% vs Schafer at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Schafer has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Bader's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Schafer has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BaderSchafer
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bader
Schafer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
74"
Reach
+76"
43+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bader
Schafer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
16.5
54.2
Performance Avg
46.9
40
Quality of Victory
56
100
Momentum Score
33
Bader
Schafer
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.8
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
8.0
6.3
Style: Volume
0.7
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
6
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance6
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Bader
Schafer
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
5.3
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.7
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
6.7
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bader
Schafer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
28
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
9/22 fights
Bader
Schafer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Bader
Schafer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
9
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bader
Schafer
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
BaderSchafer
Strike Zones
Bader
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedSchafer
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bader targets the head (100% of attacks) — Schafer absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Schafer targets the head (100% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bader
RND
Schafer
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Bader · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisDecision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
Schafer · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Jorge RiveraKO/TKO
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01
L · Dec · R3
Aaron SimpsonDecision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
L · Dec · R3
Jason BrilzDecision
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · 2010-03
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderDecision
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10
W · KO · R1
Antonio MendesKO/TKO
UFC 93: Franklin vs Henderson · 2009-01