UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Los Angeles, USA
24 Oct 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
55%
Bader
45%
Schafer
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RB
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23 – 5
6'2"74" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 20
ES
Eric Schafer
"Red"
14 – 8
Pressure Fighter4-fight slide48 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'3"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bader

This is a genuine toss-up — Bader at 55% vs Schafer at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Schafer has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Bader has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bader's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Schafer has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Bader
Schafer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
74"
Reach
+76"
42+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bader
Schafer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
16.5
54.2
Performance Avg
46.9
40
Quality of Victory
56
100
Momentum Score
33
Bader
Schafer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
6
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance6
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Bader
Schafer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bader
Schafer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
28
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
9/22 fights
Bader
Schafer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Bader
Schafer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
9
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bader
Schafer
Striking4.8 / 4.0Volume6.3 / 0.7Grappling2.0 / 5.3Wrestling1.4 / 3.7Submission0.7 / 6.7Pressure5.0 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Bader
Strike Zones
Schafer
Bader
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Schafer
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bader targets the head (100% of attacks) — Schafer absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Schafer targets the head (100% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bader
RND
Schafer
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Bader · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L5.0W1.9L4.5W4.5W5.1W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.2W2008-122011-022013-012015-012016-11
WinLossTrend

Schafer · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W1.5L2.8L5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L2.8L2006-082008-092010-032012-01
WinLossTrend

Bader · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

Schafer · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Jorge RiveraRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01
L · Dec · R3
Aaron SimpsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
L · Dec · R3
Jason BrilzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · 2010-03
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10
W · KO · R1
Antonio MendesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 93: Franklin vs Henderson · 2009-01

News & Media

Ryan Bader · Eric Schafer
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