UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2012
Lightweight
VS
14%
Alessio
86%
Roller
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Roller
Roller is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Roller has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Roller has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Roller has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alessio
Roller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
72"
46
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alessio
Roller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.2
13.2
0.0
Performance Avg
37.3
0
Quality of Victory
40
0
Momentum Score
28
Alessio
Roller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.8
33%
Strike Accuracy
41%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
5
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance1
1Clinch0
1Ground4
Alessio
Roller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alessio
Roller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/52 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Alessio
Roller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
28
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Alessio
Roller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alessio
Roller
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
AlessioRoller
Strike Zones
Alessio
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedRoller
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alessio targets the head (100% of attacks) — Roller absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Roller targets the head (100% of attacks) — Alessio absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alessio
RND
Roller
0/0R00/0
Alessio · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Roller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Alessio · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Shane RollerRating 5.5Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Mark BocekRating 5.5Decision
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04
L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 5.5Decision
Ortiz vs Shamrock 3: The Final Chapter · 2006-10
L · Dec · R3
Diego SanchezRating 5.5Decision
UFC 60: Hughes vs Gracie · 2006-05
L · Sub · R2
Pat MiletichRating 2.8Submission
UFC 26: Ultimate Field Of Dreams · 2000-06
Roller · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jacob VolkmannRating 1.5Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
John AlessioRating 4.5Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01
L · Sub · R3
TJ GrantRating 4Submission
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10
L · KO · R1
Melvin GuillardRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07