UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
Paris, France
6 Sept 2025
Lightweight
VS
6%
Hardwick
94%
Fernandes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Fernandes
Fernandes is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 63 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Fernandes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 48 points.
Striking split: Hardwick throws more volume but Fernandes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hardwick's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hardwick
Fernandes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
71"
Reach
+73"
31
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Hardwick
Fernandes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
4.5
67.2
0.0
Performance Avg
59.0
0
Quality of Victory
48
0
Momentum Score
87
Hardwick
Fernandes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.3
2.6
42%
Strike Accuracy
57%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
11
0
Body
3
2
Leg
10
RangeRange
8Distance24
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Hardwick
Fernandes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hardwick
Fernandes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
98
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Hardwick
Fernandes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
87
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Hardwick
Fernandes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hardwick
Fernandes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.2
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
HardwickFernandes
Strike Zones
Hardwick
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedFernandes
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hardwick targets the head (75% of attacks) — Fernandes absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Fernandes targets the head (46% of attacks) — Hardwick absorbs 46% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hardwick
RND
Fernandes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hardwick · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Fernandes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Hardwick · Last 2
L · KO · R2
Marwan RahikiRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Kaue FernandesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Fernandes · Last 4
W · KO · R1
Harry HardwickRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Guram KutateladzeRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · KO · R1
Mohammad YahyaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Marc DiakieseRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11