UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Brasilia, Brazil
14 Mar 2020
Welterweight
VS
45%
Maia
55%
Burns
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:34
DM
Demian Maia
28 – 11
6'1"72" reachSouthpaw48 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
Gilbert
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22 – 10
Well-Rounded5-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Burns

This is a genuine toss-up — Maia at 45% vs Burns at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Burns has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Burns has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Maia
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
72"+
Reach
71"
48
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Maia
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.4
39.8
50.8
Performance Avg
48.1
40
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
28
Maia
Burns
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
49%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
10
0
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground8
Maia
Burns
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maia
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.2 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/39 fights
Chin rating based on
25/32 fights
Maia
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
28
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Maia
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
53%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
11
Submission Wins
5
10
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maia
Burns
Striking1.8 / 3.2Volume5.0 / 4.9Grappling5.1 / 3.8Wrestling3.6 / 2.6Submission5.0 / 3.3Pressure5.8 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Maia
Strike Zones
Burns
Maia
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY2LEGS13 absorbed
Burns
Attacking
10HEAD1BODY2LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (100% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the head (77% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 77% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maia
RND
Burns
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Maia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.4W5.5W5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W6.3L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.9W5.6W5.9W5.0W4.5W5.5L6.8L6.6L5.0W4.5W5.2W1.7L6.6L2007-102010-122014-052018-052021-06
WinLossTrend

Burns · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.2W5.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W2.4L4.5W6.4W4.5W5.6W5.0W4.5W3.9L5.1W7.4L5.6W4.5W6.6L5.5L6.6L3.6L4.5L2014-072018-042020-052024-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Maia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Sub · R3
Ben AskrenRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Sub · R1
Lyman GoodRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02

Burns · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

News & Media

Demian Maia · Gilbert Burns
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