UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
Pittsburgh, USA
21 Feb 2016
Women's Bantamweight
VS
47%
Reneau
53%
Evans-Smith
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MR
CFR 24
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Evans-Smith
This is a genuine toss-up — Reneau at 47% vs Evans-Smith at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Reneau has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Evans-Smith throws more volume but Reneau connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Reneau's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Evans-Smith has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Reneau
Evans-Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
68"+
Reach
67"
48
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Reneau
Evans-Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.5
26.0
44.1
Performance Avg
33.3
46
Quality of Victory
33
15
Momentum Score
26
Reneau
Evans-Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
45%
Strike Accuracy
33%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
8
3
Body
11
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance13
1Clinch5
0Ground2
Reneau
Evans-Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Reneau
Evans-Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
68
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/17 fights
Chin rating based on
9/12 fights
Reneau
Evans-Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
26
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Reneau
Evans-Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reneau
Evans-Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
2.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
ReneauEvans-Smith
Strike Zones
Reneau
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedEvans-Smith
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reneau targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Evans-Smith absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Evans-Smith targets the body (55% of attacks) — Reneau absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reneau
RND
Evans-Smith
0/0R00/0
Reneau · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Evans-Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Reneau · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Miesha TateRating 4.9KO/TKO
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Evans-Smith · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ailin PerezRating 6.5Decision
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