METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
Las Vegas, USA
29 Apr 2023
Heavyweight
VS
67%
Buday
33%
Collier
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Martin BudaywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jake Collier · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Buday
→
Actual result
Buday wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Buday holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Collier has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Collier throws more volume but Buday connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Collier has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BudayCollier
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Buday
Collier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
77"
Reach
+78"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Buday
Collier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.5
26.7
52.5
Performance Avg
36.4
29
Quality of Victory
37
78
Momentum Score
45
Buday
Collier
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
1.9
53%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
11
8
Body
9
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
22Distance16
4Clinch6
7Ground0
Buday
Collier
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Buday
Collier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
2
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/18 fights
Chin rating based on
14/23 fights
Buday
Collier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
45
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Buday
Collier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Buday
Collier
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
BudayCollier
Strike Zones
Buday
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedCollier
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Buday targets the head (73% of attacks) — Collier absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Collier targets the head (50% of attacks) — Buday absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Buday
RND
Collier
0/0R00/0
Buday · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Collier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Buday · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Marcus BuchechaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Uran SatybaldievRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.2Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Shamil GazievRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Sub · R1
Josh ParisianRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
Collier · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mohammed UsmanRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
L · KO · R2
Chris BarnettRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
W · Sub · R1
Chase ShermanRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01