METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jun 2026
Catch Weight
VS
36%
Schnell
64%
Costa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:28
★ Official Result
Alessandro CostawinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:28
def. Matt Schnell · UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Costa
→
Actual result
Costa wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Costa holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Schnell has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Schnell's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SchnellCosta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Schnell
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'4"
70"+
Reach
67"
36
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Schnell
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.5
65.6
39.6
Performance Avg
57.9
37
Quality of Victory
55
45
Momentum Score
85
Schnell
Costa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
/ 10
9.3
/ 10
4.3
Style: Pressure
8.9
5.5
Style: Volume
1.3
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
16
1
Body
2
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground12
Schnell
Costa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.8
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
3.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
4.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Schnell
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/27 fights
Chin rating based on
8/20 fights
Schnell
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
85
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Schnell
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Schnell
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
4.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.9
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.3
SchnellCosta
Strike Zones
Schnell
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedCosta
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Schnell targets the head (63% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (84% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 84% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Schnell
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Schnell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alessandro CostaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickDecision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
Costa · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenSubmission
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · KO · R1
Matt SchnellKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Stewart NicollKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R3
Alden CoriaKO/TKO
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Kevin BorjasKO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05