UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
Las Vegas, USA
16 Sept 2023
Flyweight
VS
99%
Chairez
1%
Lacerda
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chairez
Chairez is a strong favourite at 99% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 55 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Chairez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 44 points.
Striking split: Lacerda throws more volume but Chairez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lacerda has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Chairez
Lacerda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
70"
30
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Chairez
Lacerda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
0.7
50.6
Performance Avg
0.0
44
Quality of Victory
0
54
Momentum Score
0
Chairez
Lacerda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
40%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
1
2
Body
1
10
Leg
2
RangeRange
12Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Chairez
Lacerda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chairez
Lacerda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Chairez
Lacerda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Chairez
Lacerda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chairez
Lacerda
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
ChairezLacerda
Strike Zones
Chairez
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedLacerda
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chairez targets the legs (83% of attacks) — Lacerda absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Lacerda targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Chairez absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chairez
RND
Lacerda
0/0R00/0
Chairez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Lacerda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.3WinLossTrend
Chairez · Last 5
Upcoming
Bruno SilvaUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Felipe BunesRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Sub · R1
CJ VergaraRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R1
Daniel LacerdaRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Lacerda · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Edgar ChairezRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Upcoming
Edgar ChairezUFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · KO · R2
CJ VergaraRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · KO · R1
Victor AltamiranoRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R1
Francisco FigueiredoRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04