UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Cleveland, USA
10 Sept 2016
Lightweight
VS
78%
Dober
22%
Gonzalez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:45
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dober
Dober is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dober has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Dober's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gonzalez has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dober
Gonzalez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'2"
70"
Reach
+74"
37
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Dober
Gonzalez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.9
17.0
53.2
Performance Avg
42.4
50
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
43
Dober
Gonzalez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.8
43%
Strike Accuracy
34%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
11 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
6
2
Body
1
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
15Distance9
4Clinch1
1Ground0
Dober
Gonzalez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dober
Gonzalez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Dober
Gonzalez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
43
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Dober
Gonzalez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
100%
11
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dober
Gonzalez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
DoberGonzalez
Strike Zones
Dober
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedGonzalez
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dober targets the head (70% of attacks) — Gonzalez absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Gonzalez targets the head (60% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dober
RND
Gonzalez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dober · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Gonzalez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.1WinLossTrend
Dober · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
Gonzalez · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
L · Sub · R2
Gregor GillespieRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
W · Sub · R1
JC CottrellRating 5Submission
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09