UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
Las Vegas, USA
4 Dec 2021
Lightweight
VS
55%
Guida
45%
Santos
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:21
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
LS
Leonardo Santos
18 – 7
Well-Rounded3-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 36

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 55% vs Santos at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Santos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Santos has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Guida
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+75"
44+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
36.1
40.7
Performance Avg
57.5
35
Quality of Victory
49
78
Momentum Score
100
Guida
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
36%
Strike Accuracy
49%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
5
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
8Ground0
Guida
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
8
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Guida
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Guida
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
57%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
2
11
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Santos
Striking2.1 / 4.3Volume5.9 / 4.8Grappling3.7 / 3.3Wrestling2.6 / 2.3Submission2.8 / 2.9Pressure4.2 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Guida
Strike Zones
Santos
Guida
Attacking
2HEAD5BODY3LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Santos
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD5BODY3LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the body (50% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (50% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L3.2L5.9L2013-062015-122020-072022-08
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Santos · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaRating 3.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
L · KO · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman BogatovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R1
Stevie RayRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06

News & Media

Clay Guida · Leonardo Santos
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