METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
Las Vegas, USA
4 Dec 2021
Lightweight
VS
55%
Guida
45%
Santos
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:21
★ Official Result
Clay GuidawinsSubmissionR2 · 1:21
def. Leonardo Santos · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Guida wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 55% vs Santos at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Santos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Santos has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GuidaSantos
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guida
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+75"
44+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
36.1
40.7
Performance Avg
57.5
35
Quality of Victory
49
78
Momentum Score
100
Guida
Santos
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
1.1
36%
Strike Accuracy
49%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
5
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
8Ground0
Guida
Santos
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
8
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Guida
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Guida
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
57%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
2
11
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
GuidaSantos
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedSantos
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the body (50% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (50% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Santos · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaRating 3.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
L · KO · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman BogatovRating 4.5Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R1
Stevie RayRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06