UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
11 Jul 2020
Bantamweight
VS
3%
Day
97%
Grant
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:38
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Grant
Grant is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 50 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Grant has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.
Striking split: Grant throws more volume but Day connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Day's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Grant has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Day
Grant
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
69"
37+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Day
Grant
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.7
51.7
0.0
Performance Avg
44.2
0
Quality of Victory
36
0
Momentum Score
85
Day
Grant
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.0
54%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
21
3
Body
5
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
26Distance27
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Day
Grant
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Day
Grant
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
46
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/14 fights
Chin rating based on
16/26 fights
Day
Grant
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
85
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Day
Grant
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
44%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Day
Grant
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
DayGrant
Strike Zones
Day
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedGrant
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Day targets the head (88% of attacks) — Grant absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Grant targets the head (78% of attacks) — Day absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Day
RND
Grant
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Day · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Grant · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Day · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Timur ValievRating 5.5Decision
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UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Pingyuan LiuRating 5.5Decision
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Grant · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Adrian Luna MartinettiRating 4.5Decision
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