UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen
Boston, USA
17 Aug 2013
Featherweight
VS
57%
McGregor
43%
Holloway
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McGregor
This is a genuine toss-up — McGregor at 57% vs Holloway at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Striking split: Holloway throws more volume but McGregor connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
McGregor's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holloway has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
McGregor
Holloway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
74"+
Reach
69"
37
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
McGregor
Holloway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.4
56.2
68.9
Performance Avg
56.8
67
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
63
McGregor
Holloway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.2
56%
Strike Accuracy
52%
9.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
8 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
1
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
1Clinch0
7Ground0
McGregor
Holloway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.5
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McGregor
Holloway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/28 fights
Chin rating based on
33/36 fights
McGregor
Holloway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
McGregor
Holloway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
52%
8
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McGregor
Holloway
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
McGregorHolloway
Strike Zones
McGregor
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedHolloway
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McGregor targets the head (73% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Holloway targets the head (50% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McGregor
RND
Holloway
0/0R00/0
McGregor · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
McGregor · Last 5
Upcoming
Max HollowayUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.4Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04