UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Las Vegas, USA
17 Jun 2023
Middleweight
VS
32%
Petrosyan
68%
Duncan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Duncan
Duncan holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Petrosyan has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Duncan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Striking split: Petrosyan throws more volume but Duncan connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Petrosyan's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Petrosyan
Duncan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
71"
Reach
+79"
35
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Petrosyan
Duncan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.3
64.8
32.1
Performance Avg
59.8
25
Quality of Victory
48
30
Momentum Score
72
Petrosyan
Duncan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
2.2
53%
Strike Accuracy
63%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
7
1
Body
0
7
Leg
5
RangeRange
15Distance11
0Clinch0
1Ground1
Petrosyan
Duncan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Petrosyan
Duncan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
9/16 fights
Petrosyan
Duncan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
72
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Petrosyan
Duncan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
71%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Petrosyan
Duncan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
8.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
PetrosyanDuncan
Strike Zones
Petrosyan
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedDuncan
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Petrosyan targets the head (50% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Duncan targets the head (58% of attacks) — Petrosyan absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Petrosyan
RND
Duncan
0/0R00/0
Petrosyan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Duncan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Petrosyan · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Brunno FerreiraRating 4.3Submission
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Shara MagomedovRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Sub · R1
Rodolfo VieiraRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
AJ DobsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · 2022-10
Duncan · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 5.9Decision
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W · KO · R2
Marco TulioRating 6.6KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 5.8KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Andrey PulyaevRating 5.6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Gregory RodriguesRating 7.1Decision
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