UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
San Jose, USA
26 Jul 2014
Welterweight
VS
5%
Stahl
95%
Burns
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Burns
Burns is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Burns has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Striking split: Stahl throws more volume but Burns connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Burns has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Stahl
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
Reach
71"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stahl
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.1
39.8
0.0
Performance Avg
48.1
0
Quality of Victory
40
0
Momentum Score
28
Stahl
Burns
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.1
37%
Strike Accuracy
49%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
14
3
Body
6
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance16
2Clinch5
0Ground0
Stahl
Burns
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Stahl
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/14 fights
Chin rating based on
25/32 fights
Stahl
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
28
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Stahl
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
53%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
5
0
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stahl
Burns
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
StahlBurns
Strike Zones
Stahl
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedBurns
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stahl targets the head (54% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the head (67% of attacks) — Stahl absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stahl
RND
Burns
0/0R00/0
Stahl · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Stahl · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · 2014-07
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05