UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
Anaheim, USA
22 Jan 2022
Lightweight
VS
90%
Frevola
10%
Valdez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:15
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Frevola
Frevola is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Frevola has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 46 points.
Frevola has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Frevola's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Frevola
Valdez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+72"
35
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Frevola
Valdez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.6
4.4
45.8
Performance Avg
0.0
46
Quality of Victory
0
20
Momentum Score
0
Frevola
Valdez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
24%
6.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
56
Head
9
3
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance7
6Clinch3
43Ground0
Frevola
Valdez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Frevola
Valdez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
74
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/17 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Frevola
Valdez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Frevola
Valdez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Frevola
Valdez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
FrevolaValdez
Strike Zones
Frevola
Attacking
60 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedValdez
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
60 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Frevola targets the head (93% of attacks) — Valdez absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Valdez targets the head (90% of attacks) — Frevola absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Frevola
RND
Valdez
0/0R00/0
0/0R40/0
Frevola · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Valdez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Frevola · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R3
Fares ZiamRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · KO · R1
Benoit Saint DenisRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R1
Ottman AzaitarRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Valdez · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Evan ElderRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Natan LevyRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01