UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
New Orleans, USA
17 Sept 2011
Lightweight
VS
53%
McKenzie
47%
Rocha
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:49
CM
Cody McKenzie
16 – 10
6'0"72" reachSwitch38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
VR
Vagner Rocha
"Ceara"
14 – 4
Submission Hunter2-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'10"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: McKenzie

This is a genuine toss-up — McKenzie at 53% vs Rocha at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Rocha has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

McKenzie's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rocha has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

McKenzie
Rocha
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
+73"
38+
Age
43
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
McKenzie
Rocha
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
16.1
43.7
Performance Avg
39.7
44
Quality of Victory
50
72
Momentum Score
36
McKenzie
Rocha
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.3
32%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
11
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground8
McKenzie
Rocha
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.9
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McKenzie
Rocha
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/26 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
McKenzie
Rocha
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
36
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
McKenzie
Rocha
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McKenzie
Rocha
Striking0.9 / 0.5Volume3.5 / 0.5Grappling6.1 / 8.0Wrestling4.3 / 5.6Submission6.7 / 10.0Pressure6.0 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
McKenzie
Strike Zones
Rocha
McKenzie
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD0BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Rocha
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McKenzie targets the head (67% of attacks) — Rocha absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Rocha targets the head (100% of attacks) — McKenzie absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McKenzie
RND
Rocha
0/0R00/0

McKenzie · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0105.0W2.8L2.8L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.5L2010-122011-092012-072013-12
WinLossTrend

Rocha · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W1.5L3.8L2011-062011-092012-022014-11
WinLossTrend

McKenzie · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sam StoutRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
W · Dec · R3
Leonard GarciaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · KO · R1
Chad MendesRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
W · Sub · R1
Marcus LeVesseurRating 5
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · Sub · R2
Vagner RochaRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09

Rocha · Last 4

L · Sub · R2
Jake MatthewsRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping · 2014-11
L · KO · R1
Jonathan BrookinsRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Sub · R2
Cody McKenzieRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
L · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06

News & Media

Cody McKenzie · Vagner Rocha
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