METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
New Orleans, USA
17 Sept 2011
Lightweight
VS
53%
McKenzie
47%
Rocha
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:49
★ Official Result
Vagner RochawinsSubmissionR2 · 3:49
def. Cody McKenzie · UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McKenzie
→
Actual result
Rocha wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — McKenzie at 53% vs Rocha at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
McKenzie's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rocha has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
McKenzieRocha
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
McKenzie
Rocha
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
+73"
38+
Age
44
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
McKenzie
Rocha
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
16.1
43.7
Performance Avg
39.7
44
Quality of Victory
50
72
Momentum Score
36
McKenzie
Rocha
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
6.0
Style: Pressure
7.8
3.5
Style: Volume
0.5
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
11
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground8
McKenzie
Rocha
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.1
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
4.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
6.7
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McKenzie
Rocha
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/26 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
McKenzie
Rocha
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
36
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
McKenzie
Rocha
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McKenzie
Rocha
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
McKenzieRocha
Strike Zones
McKenzie
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedRocha
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McKenzie targets the head (67% of attacks) — Rocha absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Rocha targets the head (100% of attacks) — McKenzie absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McKenzie
RND
Rocha
0/0R00/0
McKenzie · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sam StoutDecision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
W · Dec · R3
Leonard GarciaDecision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · KO · R1
Chad MendesKO/TKO
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
W · Sub · R1
Marcus LeVesseurSubmission
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · Sub · R2
Vagner RochaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
Rocha · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Jake MatthewsSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping · 2014-11
L · KO · R1
Jonathan BrookinsKO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Sub · R2
Cody McKenzieSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
L · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneDecision
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06