UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Welterweight
VS
47%
Holland
53%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
KH
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
29 – 15
6'3"81" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 47
Daniel
Daniel Rodriguez
"D-Rod"
20 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak39 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'1"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rodriguez

This is a genuine toss-up — Holland at 47% vs Rodriguez at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Rodriguez throws more volume but Holland connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Holland's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rodriguez has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Holland
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
81"+
Reach
74"
33+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Holland
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.0
53.3
49.3
Performance Avg
50.7
44
Quality of Victory
37
51
Momentum Score
70
Holland
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.9
52%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
10
4
Body
4
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
14Distance14
12Clinch0
4Ground3
Holland
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
1.0
6
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holland
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/44 fights
Chin rating based on
14/25 fights
Holland
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
70
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Holland
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
40%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
6
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Holland
Rodriguez
Striking4.3 / 4.4Volume3.6 / 6.2Grappling3.8 / 2.2Wrestling2.6 / 1.6Submission3.8 / 1.0Pressure6.5 / 4.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Holland
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Holland
Attacking
25HEAD4BODY1LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD4BODY3LEGS17 absorbed
Rodriguez
Attacking
10HEAD4BODY3LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD4BODY1LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Holland targets the head (83% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (59% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 59% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Holland
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0

Holland · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5W5.6W4.5W4.1L6.4W6.7W4.5W5.0W5.0W5.8L6.3L5.2W5.3W3.4L3.9L6.0W5.8W7.0L6.3L6.0W2.9L2.5L5.6W6.7W6.4L7.3L5.4W2018-082020-092022-092024-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.3W5.3W5.0W5.8L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.3W4.6L3.0L5.8L4.5W6.0W5.1W2020-022021-042022-112025-052025-07
WinLossTrend

Holland · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

Rodriguez · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Ian Machado GarryRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05

News & Media

Kevin Holland · Daniel Rodriguez
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