UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
Winnipeg, Canada
15 Jun 2013
Lightweight
VS
41%
Clarke
59%
Maguire
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MC
Mitch Clarke
"Danger Zone"
11 – 5
5'10"73" reachOrthodox40 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 11
JM
John Maguire
"The One"
24 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsSouthpaw69" reach5'9"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Maguire

This is a genuine toss-up — Clarke at 41% vs Maguire at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Clarke throws more volume but Maguire connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Clarke's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Clarke
Maguire
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
69"
40+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Clarke
Maguire
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.9
16.0
33.8
Performance Avg
38.3
37
Quality of Victory
37
10
Momentum Score
50
Clarke
Maguire
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.5
36%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
1
2
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
3Clinch2
4Ground0
Clarke
Maguire
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Clarke
Maguire
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/16 fights
Chin rating based on
5/33 fights
Clarke
Maguire
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
50
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Clarke
Maguire
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Clarke
Maguire
Striking0.6 / 0.8Volume4.6 / 4.8Grappling5.2 / 5.2Wrestling3.6 / 3.6Submission5.0 / 5.0Pressure4.4 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Clarke
Strike Zones
Maguire
Clarke
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD2BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Maguire
Attacking
1HEAD2BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Clarke targets the head (67% of attacks) — Maguire absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Maguire targets the body (67% of attacks) — Clarke absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Clarke
RND
Maguire
0/0R00/0

Clarke · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0102.8L5.5L4.5W5.2W6.3L1.5L2.8L2011-122013-062015-042017-09
WinLossTrend

Maguire · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L5.5L2011-112012-042012-092012-112013-06
WinLossTrend

Clarke · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alex WhiteRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Sub · R1
Joe DuffyRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · 2015-04
W · Sub · R2
Al IaquintaRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
John MaguireRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06

Maguire · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mitch ClarkeRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06
L · Dec · R3
Matthew RiddleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
L · Dec · R3
John HathawayRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
W · Sub · R2
DaMarques JohnsonRating 5.2
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
W · Dec · R3
Justin EdwardsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · 2011-11

News & Media

Mitch Clarke · John Maguire
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