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UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux
Bangor, USA
16 Aug 2014
Welterweight
VS
44%
Baczynski
56%
Jouban
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:23
SB
Seth Baczynski
"The Polish Pistola"
20 – 14
6'3"75" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
AJ
Alan Jouban
"Brahma"
17 – 7
Well-Rounded44 yrsSouthpaw73" reach6'0"
CFR 18
★ Official Result
Alan JoubanwinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:23
def. Seth Baczynski · UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Jouban
→
Actual result
Jouban wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Baczynski at 44% vs Jouban at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Jouban has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Baczynski's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Jouban has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
BaczynskiJouban
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Baczynski
Jouban
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
75"+
Reach
73"
44
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Baczynski
Jouban
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
18.1
43.3
Performance Avg
49.7
42
Quality of Victory
42
33
Momentum Score
67
Baczynski
Jouban
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
2.8
31%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
15
2
Body
5
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
15Distance14
8Clinch9
2Ground2
Baczynski
Jouban
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Baczynski
Jouban
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
40
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/34 fights
Chin rating based on
13/24 fights
Baczynski
Jouban
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
67
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Baczynski
Jouban
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Baczynski
Jouban
Striking2.9 / 6.2Volume4.1 / 5.2Grappling4.2 / 1.2Wrestling2.9 / 0.8Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure5.6 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
Baczynski
Strike Zones
Jouban
Baczynski
Attacking
23HEAD2BODY0LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD5BODY5LEGS25 absorbed
Jouban
Attacking
15HEAD5BODY5LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD2BODY0LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Baczynski targets the head (92% of attacks) — Jouban absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Jouban targets the head (60% of attacks) — Baczynski absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Baczynski
RND
Jouban
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Baczynski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L5.2W5.6W4.5W5.0W5.5L1.5L5.1W5.5L1.5L2.6L2010-062012-062013-072014-082015-04
WinLossTrend

Jouban · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W5.7L5.0W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.6W4.5W3.8L2.2L5.2W5.5L5.0W2014-082015-102017-032020-11
WinLossTrend

Baczynski · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Leon EdwardsRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Alan JoubanRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · KO · R1
Brian MelanconRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07

Jouban · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Jared GoodenRating 5
Decision
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
L · Dec · R3
Dwight GrantRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Sub · R2
Gunnar NelsonRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03

News & Media

Seth Baczynski · Alan Jouban
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