UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2016
Lightweight
VS
93%
Makdessi
7%
Baghdad
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Makdessi
Makdessi is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Makdessi has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.
Makdessi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Makdessi's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Makdessi
Baghdad
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'1"
68"
Reach
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Makdessi
Baghdad
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.9
2.4
42.2
Performance Avg
0.0
34
Quality of Victory
0
51
Momentum Score
0
Makdessi
Baghdad
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.5
51%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
17
11
Body
2
5
Leg
6
RangeRange
28Distance19
3Clinch3
2Ground3
Makdessi
Baghdad
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Makdessi
Baghdad
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/27 fights
Chin rating based on
2/16 fights
Makdessi
Baghdad
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Makdessi
Baghdad
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
27%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Makdessi
Baghdad
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MakdessiBaghdad
Strike Zones
Makdessi
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedBaghdad
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Makdessi targets the head (52% of attacks) — Baghdad absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Baghdad targets the head (68% of attacks) — Makdessi absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Makdessi
RND
Baghdad
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Makdessi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Baghdad · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Makdessi · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jamie MullarkeyRating 5.7Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · 2022-09
W · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Dec · R3
Jesus PinedoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
Baghdad · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
John MakdessiRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
L · Sub · R1
Chris WadeRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01