UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
Austin, USA
18 Feb 2018
Welterweight
VS
29%
Burkman
71%
Morono
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:12
JB
CFR 14
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Morono
Morono is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Morono throws more volume but Burkman connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Burkman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Morono has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Burkman
Morono
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
46
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burkman
Morono
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
35.0
34.7
Performance Avg
43.3
36
Quality of Victory
35
80
Momentum Score
20
Burkman
Morono
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
41%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
0
Body
0
4
Leg
5
RangeRange
4Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Burkman
Morono
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Burkman
Morono
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
20
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/44 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Burkman
Morono
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
20
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Burkman
Morono
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
31%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burkman
Morono
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.5
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
BurkmanMorono
Strike Zones
Burkman
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedMorono
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burkman targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Morono absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Morono targets the legs (71% of attacks) — Burkman absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burkman
RND
Morono
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Burkman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Morono · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Burkman · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
L · Sub · R1
Michel PrazeresRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Zak OttowRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · Dec · R3
Paul FelderRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
Morono · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Daniil DonchenkoRating 7.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Carlos LealRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04