UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
London, United Kingdom
21 Mar 2026
Welterweight
VS
42%
Page
58%
Patterson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Patterson
This is a genuine toss-up — Page at 42% vs Patterson at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Patterson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Striking split: Patterson throws more volume but Page connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Page
Patterson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
79"+
Reach
78"
39
Age
+30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Page
Patterson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.2
69.2
47.0
Performance Avg
60.9
25
Quality of Victory
57
70
Momentum Score
85
Page
Patterson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.4
59%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
0
Body
3
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
12Distance4
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Page
Patterson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Page
Patterson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/28 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Page
Patterson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
85
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Page
Patterson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Page
Patterson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
2.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.0
9.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.3
PagePatterson
Strike Zones
Page
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedPatterson
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Page targets the head (67% of attacks) — Patterson absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Patterson targets the body (50% of attacks) — Page absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Page
RND
Patterson
0/0R00/0
Page · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Patterson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Page · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Sam PattersonRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Jared CannonierRating 5.5Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Shara MagomedovRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 5.1Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
Patterson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Trey WatersRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Danny BarlowRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Kiefer CrosbieRating 5Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Yohan LainesseRating 5Submission
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01