UFC Fight Night 2
Las Vegas, USA
3 Oct 2005
Middleweight
VS
53%
Fitch
47%
Larson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JF
Jon Fitch
30 – 7
6'0"74" reachOrthodox48 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 21
BL
Brock Larson
42 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide48 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'11"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Fitch

This is a genuine toss-up — Fitch at 53% vs Larson at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Larson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Fitch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Fitch
Larson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
71"
48
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Fitch
Larson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.0
18.8
52.4
Performance Avg
46.6
32
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
66
Fitch
Larson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.6
57%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance0
0Clinch2
6Ground0
Fitch
Larson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.4
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.3
2.1
Submission Style (/10)
6.7
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Fitch
Larson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/37 fights
Chin rating based on
6/52 fights
Fitch
Larson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
66
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Fitch
Larson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Fitch
Larson
Striking2.4 / 1.0Volume7.4 / 3.7Grappling3.4 / 6.1Wrestling2.4 / 4.3Submission2.1 / 6.7Pressure4.5 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
2.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Fitch
Strike Zones
Larson
Fitch
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 absorbed
Larson
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Fitch targets the head (90% of attacks) — Larson absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Larson targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Fitch absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Fitch
RND
Larson
0/0R00/0

Fitch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5L2005-102007-062009-072012-102013-02
WinLossTrend

Larson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.5L2.8L2005-102006-122009-042009-052009-092009-11
WinLossTrend

Fitch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Erick SilvaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Johny HendricksRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
Upcoming
BJ Penn
Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08

Larson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Brian FosterRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 · 2009-11
L · Dec · R3
Mike PierceRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard · 2009-09
W · Sub · R1
Mike PyleRating 5
Submission
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
W · Sub · R1
Jesse SandersRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann · 2009-04
W · Dec · R3
Keita NakamuraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sanchez vs Riggs · 2006-12

News & Media

Jon Fitch · Brock Larson
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