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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Las Vegas, USA
17 Dec 2022
Welterweight
VS
55%
Matthews
45%
Semelsberger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jake
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
22 – 8
5'11"73" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 55
Matthew
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
11 – 8
Well-Rounded4-fight slide33 yrsSwitch75" reach6'1"
CFR 45
★ Official Result
Matthew SemelsbergerwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jake Matthews · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Matthews
→
Actual result
Semelsberger wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Matthews at 55% vs Semelsberger at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Semelsberger has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
MatthewsSemelsberger
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Matthews
Semelsberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+75"
32+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Matthews
Semelsberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.2
45.1
48.4
Performance Avg
41.6
36
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
84
Matthews
Semelsberger
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
4.9
/ 10
5.1
Style: Pressure
4.2
5.3
Style: Volume
5.7
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
9
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance8
1Clinch0
0Ground2
Matthews
Semelsberger
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
6
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Matthews
Semelsberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Matthews
Semelsberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
84
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Matthews
Semelsberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Matthews
Semelsberger
Striking2.0 / 4.9Volume5.3 / 5.7Grappling4.2 / 1.4Wrestling2.9 / 1.0Submission3.8 / 0.0Pressure5.1 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Matthews
Strike Zones
Semelsberger
Matthews
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Semelsberger
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (86% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (90% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Matthews
RND
Semelsberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Matthews · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Carlston Harris
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil Magny
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi Njokuani
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco Prado
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil Rowe
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Semelsberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Charles Radtke
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Preston Parsons
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R3
Uros Medic
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremiah Wells
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake Matthews
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

News & Media

Jake Matthews · Matthew Semelsberger
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