UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Las Vegas, USA
17 Dec 2022
Welterweight
VS
55%
Matthews
45%
Semelsberger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jake
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
22 – 8
5'11"73" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 55
Matthew
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
11 – 8
Well-Rounded4-fight slide33 yrsSwitch75" reach6'1"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Matthews

This is a genuine toss-up — Matthews at 55% vs Semelsberger at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Matthews has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Semelsberger has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Matthews
Semelsberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+75"
31+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Matthews
Semelsberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
45.1
48.3
Performance Avg
41.6
37
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
84
Matthews
Semelsberger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
9
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance8
1Clinch0
0Ground2
Matthews
Semelsberger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Semelsberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Matthews
Semelsberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
84
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Matthews
Semelsberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Matthews
Semelsberger
Striking2.0 / 4.9Volume5.0 / 5.7Grappling4.3 / 1.4Wrestling3.0 / 1.0Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Matthews
Strike Zones
Semelsberger
Matthews
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Semelsberger
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (86% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (90% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Matthews
RND
Semelsberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Matthews · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.2W1.5L4.2W5.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W5.3W5.0W4.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.1L5.2W6.0L6.0W7.6L5.6W5.2W6.1W4.6L2014-062016-112020-022023-112025-09
WinLossTrend

Semelsberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.5W5.0W6.9L5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W6.9L5.8L5.5L2.7L2020-082021-092022-122024-012024-11
WinLossTrend

Matthews · Last 5

Upcoming
Muslim Salikhov
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Semelsberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Charles RadtkeRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R3
Uros MedicRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

News & Media

Jake Matthews · Matthew Semelsberger
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