METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2
Las Vegas, USA
13 Jan 2024
Welterweight
VS
58%
Semelsberger
42%
Parsons
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Preston ParsonswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Matthew Semelsberger · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Semelsberger
→
Actual result
Parsons wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Semelsberger at 58% vs Parsons at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Semelsberger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Parsons has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Semelsberger's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Parsons has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SemelsbergerParsons
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Semelsberger
Parsons
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
71"
33
Age
+31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Semelsberger
Parsons
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
32.2
41.6
Performance Avg
28.3
39
Quality of Victory
25
84
Momentum Score
50
Semelsberger
Parsons
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.6
43%
Strike Accuracy
53%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
10
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance2
1Clinch0
0Ground8
Semelsberger
Parsons
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Semelsberger
Parsons
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/19 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Semelsberger
Parsons
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
50
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Semelsberger
Parsons
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Semelsberger
Parsons
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
SemelsbergerParsons
Strike Zones
Semelsberger
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedParsons
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (88% of attacks) — Parsons absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Parsons targets the head (100% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Semelsberger
RND
Parsons
0/0R00/0
Semelsberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Parsons · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Semelsberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Charles RadtkeRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R3
Uros MedicRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
Parsons · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jacobe SmithRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Oban ElliottRating 6.2Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Matthew SemelsbergerRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · Dec · R3
Trevin GilesRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Evan ElderRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04