UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
3 Aug 2013
Flyweight
VS
93%
Lineker
7%
Maria
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:03
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lineker
Lineker is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lineker has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Striking split: Lineker throws more volume but Maria connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Maria has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lineker
Maria
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'5"
67"
Reach
35+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lineker
Maria
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.8
1.6
56.0
Performance Avg
0.0
43
Quality of Victory
0
83
Momentum Score
0
Lineker
Maria
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
0.3
42%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
2
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance2
1Clinch1
8Ground0
Lineker
Maria
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lineker
Maria
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
56
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/40 fights
Chin rating based on
2/44 fights
Lineker
Maria
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
Lineker
Maria
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
0%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lineker
Maria
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
LinekerMaria
Strike Zones
Lineker
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMaria
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lineker targets the head (80% of attacks) — Maria absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Maria targets the head (33% of attacks) — Lineker absorbs 33% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lineker
RND
Maria
0/0R00/0
Lineker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Maria · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.4WinLossTrend
Lineker · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Cory SandhagenRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Marlon VeraRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · Dec · R3
TJ DillashawRating 5.6Decision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
W · Dec · R5
John DodsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
Maria · Last 2
L · KO · R3
Dustin OrtizRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
L · KO · R2
John LinekerRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08